November 18, 2003, 8:29 pm EST
Texas Hold'em Hand Analysis
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It is down to just you and one other player. This player has been playing tight and aggressive all game, rarely bluffing and betting big when he's got a strong hand. You have drawn the following cards:
>> Ace of clubs, 7 of diamonds
The flop has come down:
>> 8 of clubs, 6 of clubs, 2 of hearts
The turn has come down:
>> 7 of clubs
At this point, your opponent places a sizable bet into the pot. Based on his play throughout the game, you have a strong feeling that the player is sitting on a made straight, a 4 and a 5.
There were eight players to begin the game; four folded immediately; 3 folded after the flop and one folded after the turn. No one was betting aggressively, therefore there is not much money in the pot.
Your hand currently consists of a flush draw, ace high, and a pair of 7's. If a club shows on the river, you will have a practically unbeatable hand.
The question here is: do you call the sizable bet made by your opponent? Do you raise, hoping that your opponent is either bluffing or will fold, thinking you have already completed your flush? Or do you fold your hand?
Several things to take into account:
1) Your opponent has been playing tight and aggressive all game. You are pretty sure he is holding something big, probably a made straight.
2) You haven't spent much on the hand up till this point. This is the first big bet of the game, and if you toss your hand in now, you won't lose much.
What do you do?
First off, let's look at the odds in a head to head matchup:
Your ace high flush draw has a 20.5% chance of winning. You might have thought it had a 25% chance of winning, but don't forget that there are already 4 clubs out on the table.
Your opponent's made straight has a 79.5% chance of winning.
Again, it boils down to reading your opponent. Throwing in your hand at this point is the correct decision, considering the fact that your opponent is a good, tight and aggressive player. If your opponent was a loose player, it would change the scenario. Toss in your hand and move onwards; it is going to cost you too much money to see the river, and the odds are not in your favor.
Filed Under: Poker Strategy |
